Tuesday, February 6, 2018

The Case for a Single Payer System

Posted by Stephen Weinberg, MD FACC FACP

In an effort to discuss the healthcare system and options to finance it, this post will detail the costs associated with the delivery of care.
Each year the government publishes several large databases that detail the expenditures and revenues of the entire country. The data I will provide is for 2013, the year prior to the inception of “Obamacare” in an effort to simplify the analysis. The numbers are drawn directly from the databases. National Health Expenditure Accounts



$Billion
# people
 in millions
$/person
Total personal HC costs
2,725
316
8,623
Govt Admin (Medicare and Medicaid) expenses
37
108
343
Private Health Insurance Admin expenses
174
165
1,055
Govt Public Health
75


Personal Care costs Net of Expenses
2,439
316
7,810

Out of Pocket

325

316

1,028
Private Health Insurance
834
165
5,055
Medicare
561
52
10,788
Medicaid
407
49
8,306
CHIP
11
8
1,375
VA/Military
89


Other Indian, workers comp, etc
212


Uninsured

45


This chart shows total personal healthcare costs were about $2.7 Trillion with overhead of about $286B leaving net personal healthcare costs (the amount actually spent on care) of about $2.4Trillion.
Medicare overhead was about 1.5% of total expenditures (from the Medicare Trustee Report) or $160/person. As you can see, private insurance overhead was about $1,055/person, or approximately 6.6 times that of Medicare. (Remember the prior post regarding the excess costs of private insurers.) If private insurance overhead was the same as Medicare, the total private insurance overhead would be $160x165M people or $26.4B instead of $174B. The savings would be about $148B annually. Additionally, several studies, (Insurance driven overheadNEJM insurance overhead) have demonstrated that the excess overhead of hospitals, physicians offices, nursing homes, employers, clinical labs, and home care was about $172B in order to deal with the numerous private insurance companies. The total annual cost of excess overhead of our multipayer system was about $320B in 2013.
The real question is “what are we getting for this additional cost?” I would argue, nothing!

There is also a substantial amount of money being spent by individual states and the federal government in order to provide care for the uninsured, as outlined below.  (Also from 2013)


$B
# people
$/person
Charity care from states, indigent clinics
20


Federal Govt
33


Other public money
10


Increased private insurance premiums*
66
165
400
Subtotal
129


Total Admin savings from 1.5% overhead
320


Total money available
449



*A study by Families USA demonstrated that private insurance premiums are increased by about $400/person per year as a result of providers (predominantly hospitals) obtaining higher reimbursements to offset the losses from Medicare, Medicaid, and the uninsured. Families USA, Hidden Tax

The cost to provide private insurance to all 45M uninsured (including children) was about $188B annually using the private insurance cost numbers from above. As you can see, there is about $449B available and currently being spent. If everyone had health insurance with a single payer at the current overhead of Medicare (1.5%), we would save about $449-$188 = $260B annually and everyone would have comprehensive health insurance
Seems like a good deal to me!
More to come.